Mid Year Stats

Don't react to the news about the market as presented on the news. Even the BBC, most neutral of all, gets national stats on air and we are a very micro market at the beach. And within our county we have the devoted sandophiles who must reside ON the beach, all the way to the country folk who prefer drier air, red tail hawks and lots o' space! No one rule applies here in beautiful Santa Cruz.

We are way low on inventory, only a 4.5 month supply of homes. (If nothing new was listed, at the current rate of sale, all homes would be sold in 4.5 months) 16% of homes for sale are in escrow, not the best number but not terrible either. We currently have 1,493 homes up for sale as of July 31, with 248 escrows in play. So if you are a seller, look at your pricing and consider those odds. NOT EVERY HOUSE SELLS. Listen to your agent if you have a good one.

On a year over year basis, DataQuick reports that Bay Area median has risen for 10 straight months, though July's gain was the smallest in that series. Last month, foreclosed on homes made up 26.1% of the sales, down from 33.6 % in July 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales oer the past 15 years is about 8%.

Regarding the lending climate, banks are making loans. I have had several great loans close for buyers with good downs, or great credit scores and strong jobs. But, since banks can borrow so low and buy other assets for risk free income, they are disinclined to make riskier home loans in what some perceive to be a still deteriorating economy. This may change as the feds press them to lend money. Look for the Fed rate to change.

We are also starting to see the first round of foreclosed homes that have been updated and put back on the market. Flippers are in the market improving the quality of homes.

It is going to take TIME for this all to clear and there are different levels of activity going on. Solid buyers/investors looking for super deals, cautious first time buyers who instinctively know this is a once in 30 year phenomenon, people leaving home ownership behind forever and the slow slogging through of the defaulted owners. Americans are not good at being patient, but time is the only healer of this mess.